Well, it’s been nearly 3 weeks since Tropical Storm Karen dropped a few puddles on the US Gulf Coast, and the Atlantic Ocean continues to be rather quiet in terms of storms. Thus, even when Tropical Storm Lorenzo coalesces into an actual system worthy of receiving a name (as opposed to Invest 98L from 2 weeks ago), it’s nearly a non-event. As in, the storm is in that middle-of-nowhere part of the Atlantic Ocean, and there is no threat of it achieving any sort of landfall.
Granted, we’re not hoping for storms to find land - since that seems to mean devastation of properly and loss of life - but this continues to be one of the quietest storm seasons in decades.
Unfortunately, our friends on the western coast of Mexico haven’t enjoyed a pleasant 2013 Pacific hurricane season, as Hurricane Raymond (not to be confused with the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season) has reached Category 3 status - which means it’s a major hurricane.
Dr. Jeff Masters over at Weather Underground is reporting that Invest 98L - currently a tropical wave southwest of the Cape Verde Islands - is slowly coming to form. The question remains whether or not it will ever become more than an extra-strong system of thunderstorms. As stated in his blog post: “In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 50%, and 5-day odds of 50%.”
If anything does happen wit this storm, we’ll be sure to let you know. Check out this video from The Weather Channel for more information.
However, as you can see in the 7th image, Karen didn’t ever bring the impact we had expected, as she ran into a cold front sweeping down from the northwest. As of Sunday, 10/06/2013, Karen was barely a tropical wave, having degenerated into a bunch of thunderstorm cells.
Projected model tracks for tropical storm Karen - still a lot of uncertainty. If Karen is stronger it will move to the east side of the guidance (FL), if weaker possibly to the left (LA).
Here’s an nice update regarding the potential courses of Tropical Storm Karen - the weaker the winds, the more to the west it will turn, but the stronger the storm, the more it will bend east.
More updates on this storm as we find them.
So, it’s been a few days since our last post, and you see what happens when we go a bit silent - 2 storms pay us a visit at the same time.
Admittedly, we’ve known about Tropical Storm/Depression Jerry for a few days, but much like Hurricane Humberto, it’s spent all its time in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, threatening no one - as you can see in those first three images from The Weather Channel.
With Tropical Storm Karen, things look to be much different - specifically, it’s a strong tropical storm only a few mph away from becoming a hurricane. Furthermore, it’s the first storm of the season set to make any sort of substantial US landfall. As you see in that 5th image, the Gulf Coast states of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia are all projected to receive some sort of attention from Karen over the weekend.
We’ll be back tomorrow with a further weekend update so that you can be aware of what’s happening as well as links to helpful information and phone numbers.
As you can probably tell, we haven’t had much to write about recently, and the relative dearth of storms during the 2013 Hurricane Season has caused a bit of consternation and confusion in the storm-predicting community. Hence, I wanted to share this recent article and corresponding images from The Weather Channel - specifically the idea that 2013 might be the first hurricane season since 1994 in which there is no major hurricane (any storm that is rated Category 3 or above).
Only 2 storms have become hurricanes - Humberto and Ingrid - and both barely achieved Category 1 status. The former stayed in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean and never made any sort of landfall, while the latter was a Category 1 storm for less than a day, as it immediately slowed to a Tropical Storm the instant it touched land (even though it dropped LOTS of rain).
Those last 2 data charts are quite telling. Not only have there been only 57 major October storms in the 161 years we’ve been tracking storms, the month of October only averages 2 storms in general.
Admittedly, Hurricane Sandy did ravage the greater Atlantic coast in late October 2012, but that storm was also a statistical outlier. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t remain vigilant and prepared for a hurricane, so if any sort of storm does arise during the remainder of the 2013 Hurricane Season, we’ll be certain to let you know what’s happening.
“95-L remains devoid of thunderstorms as it spins westward in the southern Gulf of Mexico. It’s quickly running out of time to organize and development in the near term now looks less likely. Brisk southeasterly flow to the north of 95-L will focus tropical moisture into south Texas ahead of an advancing cold front this weekend.”
So, after an 80% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Jerry earlier this week, it seems that Invest 95-L won’t do very much throughout the weekend.
If there are any new developments in the 2013 Hurricane Season over the weekend, check back on Monday for updates.
Following up on yesterday’s post where we alerted you to Invest 95-L, The Weather Channel is reporting that the system is approaching a 80% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Jerry. As you can see from the data provided on the second picture by Weather Underground, the storm has a few directions it can head. I would assume that what happens depend upon how any storm that forms reacts against the low pressure system that exists on the north side of the Yucatan Peninsula.
If Tropical Storm Jerry does coalesce, we’ll let you know!
The fine folks at The Weather Channel and Weather Underground have notified us of a new storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently referred to as “Invest 95-L,” this system currently displays a 50-60% chance of turning into a larger storm system. If it becomes a tropical storm, it will receive the name “Jerry.”
To learn what an “Invest” is, click this handy link from The Weather Channel.
And while Tropical Storm Ingrid has been downgraded to a tropical wave (with no further advisories to be issued), the storm will continue to bring heavy rains and wind to the eastern coast of Mexico. Thus, please watch out for areas of heavy flooding, as well as associated rainstorms entering South Texas.