Hurricane Preparedness Center

The End of Hurricane Season: What You Should Expect

While typically hurricane season peaks before November rolls around, the season doesn't actually conclude until the end of November. The Atlantic Oceanic and Meteorological Laboratory reports that 97% of hurricane activity occurs between May and November, but historically hurricane activity has occurred outside of that range. Obviously the 3 percent tells you that it's not altogether common, but as we've seen with uncommonly strong hurricane seasons in 2005 and 2006, predicting the nature of each successive  season is not an exact science by any means.

With that in mind, here are a few tidbits of data to consider as hurricane season 2009 is drawing to a close:

1. The Atlantic basin peak season actually occurs from August-October. Splitting activity into days associated with the varying scales of hurricane weather, 78% of tropical storm activity, 87% of cat. 1-2 hurricanes and 96% of the major (3, 4 and 5) occur in this time frame. So if you're in the Atlantic basin, November is not far outside of the peak.
2. Northeast Pacific basin actually extends into November for its peak season, hence the Nov. 30 target date for end of hurricane season.

What do all these numbers actually mean? Stay prepared and stay diligent. No one expects hurricanes at the cusp of Thanksgiving, but if you're paying attention to historical hurricane data, then it's certainly not outside of the realm of possibility.

Late Season Hurricane Targets the Gulf Coast

So just when you think we can breathe easier that hurricane season is winding down, Ida rears her ugly head in the Caribbean.  Good thing we didn’t plan that trip to Cancun this weekend (as if there was time and money)!  Thankfully for us, it looks like this storm will drift east of Texas. Alabama and Florida may have reason for worry, but thankfully they say it will die down before hitting the Gulf Coast (click here for more details).  

To recap what has been a relatively slow season, I am providing a few websites my husband claims are “excellent” for tracking current and potential hurricanes.  I’ve looked at some of these sites and think the satellite maps are pretty impressive, but what I like the most is the witty humor of the “SciGuy”.  He puts some of the geeky science stuff in layman’s terms, and usually puts my overly nervous mind to ease when it comes to these potentially dangerous storms. 

• National Hurricane Center (interactive map):  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml
• The Houston Chronicle’s SciGuy blog:  http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/
• Naval Research Laboratory (maps, maps and more maps):  http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/global.cgi

NOAA: El Niño to Help Steer U.S. Winter Weather; More Tornados Possible

An El Niño in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is expected to influence the December through February winter weather in the United States.   The 2009 Winter Outlook  was released October 15, 2009 by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. 

“We expect El Niño to strengthen and persist through the winter months, providing clues as to what the weather will be like during the period,” says Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. “Warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn change the strength and position of the jetstream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and the U.S.”

“Other climate factors are also likely to play a role in the winter weather at times across the country,” added Halpert. “Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.”

Texas and the Gulf of Mexico are expected to be 30-50% wetter while being 33-40% cooler than normal temperatures.  Recent rainfall and the prospects of more should improve current drought conditions in central and southern Texas.

So, while the hurricane threat has been low this year, NOAA notes that tornado records suggest an increased chance of organized tornado activity for the Gulf Coast region this winter.  So don't put away your hurricane emergency supplies for the year, just yet.

Meanwhile, the 3 month Texas temperature outlook seems...well...non-commital.

NOAA issued its Oct-Dec 2009 three month outlook for the Houston area  divided in three:  34% chance of temps being near normal (61.1 to 63.1 deg. F), 33% chance temps will be above normal (higher than 63.1 deg. F), and a 33% chance they will be lower than normal (61.1 deg. F).

Got any 3-sided coins?

How Long Does Hurricane Season Last?

Unfortunately we're not quite of out of the woods yet in 2009. Hurricane season in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico ends November 30, and both the Eastern Pacific basin and Central Pacific basin also runs until end of November.

Why is this significant? Hurricane season marks a specific time period when hurricane incidence is higher. Though most of us are gearing up for the holidays this time of the year, it's imperative to stay prepared for an emergency, especially if you reside in a coastal city. According to the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), 97% of hurricane activity occurs during hurricane season, with 96% of the major hurricane activity occurring between August and end of October.

Granted, September is the most active hurricane month globally, but it is still important to maintain an emergency disaster plan through November.

FEMA for Kids: Hurricanes

Getting your kids involved and informed during hurricane season, and beyond, is a bit easier than you may think. The National Hurricane Center has a plethora of good information on hurricane emergency preparedness, but some of the presentation may be a bit much for children to take a bite out of.

FEMA for Kids: Hurricanes offers tons of information relevant to not only hurricanes but also specific tips for kids on how they can help prepare for storm season, and what to do in case of an emergency.

For example, Things to Know offers these nuggets:

"Plan a place to meet your family in case you are separated during a disaster. Choose a friend or relative out of state for your family members to call to say they are OK."

and

"Bring in outside furniture. An adult should remove roof antennas, if they can do so safely."

Other items of note included in the site:

• The10 biggest hurricanes from 1900-2009
• Disaster supply kit (activity and information)
• Hurricane IQ quiz
• Hurricane cartoons
• Photos
• Pets and disasters

Overall FEMA for Kids: Hurricanes is packed with not essential hurricane information, but information presented in a very kid-friendly manner, making it more likely for your kids to find learning about hurricanes and hurricane safety a more enjoyable experience.

NOAA Releases New Books in Historical Climatology Series

The NOAA is releasing new material detailing both North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclones as far back as the 19th century, all part of its Historical Climatology Series. Both books represent version 6-2 and 6-5 respectively in a series that began three decades prior.

Tropical Cyclones of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, 1949-2006

• Approximately 1,370 tropical cyclones occured in the North Atlantic Ocean between 1851 and 2006
• 244 pages of facts, figures and storm tracks
• Includes recent track maps from 2007 and 2008
• Update of the series started in 1970 and last printed in 1999

Tropical Cyclones of the Eastern North Pacific Basin, 1949-2006

• 166 pages documenting 769 tropical cyclones that reached tropical storm strength or greater
• The eastern North Pacific basin - Pacific Ocean area north of the equator bounded by 140º W and the west coast of the Americas
• Apparently produces the largest number of tropical cyclones per square mile of any basin across the globe

Both books were researched and prepared by the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, NC, and in tandem with the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL.  Both are available for purchase (just click on the associated links and the NOAA will take care of the rest) at $20 and $30 a pop.

Historical Hurricane Tracks from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Historical Hurricane Tracks tool provides an interactive map for users to search through tropical cyclone data in the Eastern North Pacific and Atlantic Basins.

The primary historical data allows searches for specific storm tracks, so hurricane history buffs can sift through data as far back as the 19th century, with additional links to the 10 deadliest and costliest hurricanes in U.S. history.

Site features include:

• Search by ZIP Code, latitude and longitude coordinates, city or state, or geographic region.
• Coastal Population Tool allows users to search through coastal population data and compare with hurricane strikes for coastal counties across the U.S.
• Tropical Cyclone Reports provides access to storm reports written by none other than actual hurricane specialists at the National Hurricane Center.
• Query Expediter Tool is fantastic for bloggers and the Web savvy in us all, allowing users to build custom Uniform Resource Locators (URLs) that can be embedded in your blog or site that direct users to a custom mapping application with specific storm tracks pre displayed.

History repeats, as they say, and considering you can search through data from the deadliest hurricanes as far back as 1851, it's certainly a useful tool for learning about past precedence and storm data.

El Nino's Impacts NOAA's August 2009 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

With Hurricane Bill steaming westward on an uncertain course, one thing on the minds of many has been "What about the rest of the season?"

On August 6, NOAA released its updated forecast for 2009. As you may have guessed, while a "normal" hurricanes season was orginally forecast, however, because the season has started so late, the number of storms has been reduced to 7-11 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes. Most of this activity is expected during the upcoming peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season.

This comes about because a warming of the Pacific waters, or "El Nino", during June and is already producing increased wind shear in the Main hurricane Development Region (MDR) which encompasses the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea  The wind shear makes it more difficult for hurricanes to form or remain organized.  This may account for the late start of the season as Atlantic temperatures were too cool to provide enough storm energy to overcome the wind shear.

So how does the El Nino affect future weather for Winter 2009-2010?

Historically, this has usually meant wet winters in Florida, Texas, and the southwest with little precipitation in the Ohio Valley.  Tempuratures, meanwhile are warm from Washington State through upper midwest, with cool temperatures extending from Texas northeastwards through New York.

Is it time to start rethinking this year's ski trip?

Hurricane Bill: Tuesday A.M. Update

"Bill became the first hurricane of the season on Monday morning. It continued to strengthen throughout the day and reached category 2 strength Monday evening, currently with sustained winds near 100 miles per hour. There is a chance Hurricane Bill could go through rapid intensification today, and is currently expected to become a major hurricane in the next day or so.

The current forecast track for Bill keeps it north of the Lesser Antilles, heading in the general direction of Bermuda, or between Bermuda and the North Carolina Outer Banks, over the weekend.

Regardless of whether Bill makes landfall, rough surf is expected along the beaches of the Northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola by midweek, the Bahamas by late week, and the East Coast of the U.S. by the weekend into early next week. Dangerous rip currents can be expected once swells generated by Bill reach coastal areas."

Read Mark Avery's article at Weather.com

Track Hurricane Bill

Claudette bearing down on Florida; Will Ana and Bill become Hurricane Ana and Hurricane Bill?

After a relatively slow hurricane season thus far, there's been a flurry of activity lately with 3 storms making waves in the Atlantic and Gulf. Tropical Storm Claudette is closing in on Florida panhandle. Watch live storm updates here.

Tropical Storms Ana and Bill are also looming...

"Tropical Storm Ana (40 mile per hour winds) and is located 240 miles east of Dominica in the northern Leeward Islands.

Ana is struggling in a dry environment at this time as it races westward. The forecast is for Ana to slightly strengthen as it heads toward the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and then toward Hispaniola.

In the short term, expect increased rain and some gusty winds over portions of the northeast Caribbean Islands through Monday.

Tropical storm watches are in effect for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the rest of the northern Leeward Islands. This means tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area within 36 hours.

The intensity farther out in time will be dictated by the interaction with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and Cuba. Regardless, these areas need to monitor the progress of Tropical Storms Ana closely.

Tropical Storm Bill became the 2nd named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season on Saturday, forming in the Eastern Atlantic east of Tropical Storm Ana. Bill is currently located about 1555 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, and has top sustained winds near 60 miles per hour.

Tropical Storm Bill is forecast to move west-northwest through the open tropical Atlantic over the next few days while steadily gaining strength. If fact, Bill may be a major hurricane (category three or higher) by midweek.

The current forecast track calls for Bill to miss the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to the north. However, these areas should still monitor this systems progress over the next several days due to the uncertainty in forecasts farther out in time."

from Chris Dolce, Lead Meteorologist at The Weather Channel - The read entire article at http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurricanecentral/update/index.html?from=news_top_links

Track Ana. Track Bill.

Will Ana and Bill become Hurricane Ana and Hurricane Bill? Be prepared today.