An El Niño in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is expected to influence the December through February winter weather in the United States. The 2009 Winter Outlook was released October 15, 2009 by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
“We expect El Niño to strengthen and persist through the winter months, providing clues as to what the weather will be like during the period,” says Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. “Warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn change the strength and position of the jetstream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and the U.S.”
“Other climate factors are also likely to play a role in the winter weather at times across the country,” added Halpert. “Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.”
Texas and the Gulf of Mexico are expected to be 30-50% wetter while being 33-40% cooler than normal temperatures. Recent rainfall and the prospects of more should improve current drought conditions in central and southern Texas.
So, while the hurricane threat has been low this year, NOAA notes that tornado records suggest an increased chance of organized tornado activity for the Gulf Coast region this winter. So don't put away your hurricane emergency supplies for the year, just yet.
Meanwhile, the 3 month Texas temperature outlook seems...well...non-commital.
NOAA issued its Oct-Dec 2009 three month outlook for the Houston area divided in three: 34% chance of temps being near normal (61.1 to 63.1 deg. F), 33% chance temps will be above normal (higher than 63.1 deg. F), and a 33% chance they will be lower than normal (61.1 deg. F).
Got any 3-sided coins?
