Hurricane Preparedness Center

NOAA: El Niño to Help Steer U.S. Winter Weather; More Tornados Possible

An El Niño in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is expected to influence the December through February winter weather in the United States.   The 2009 Winter Outlook  was released October 15, 2009 by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. 

“We expect El Niño to strengthen and persist through the winter months, providing clues as to what the weather will be like during the period,” says Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. “Warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn change the strength and position of the jetstream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and the U.S.”

“Other climate factors are also likely to play a role in the winter weather at times across the country,” added Halpert. “Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.”

Texas and the Gulf of Mexico are expected to be 30-50% wetter while being 33-40% cooler than normal temperatures.  Recent rainfall and the prospects of more should improve current drought conditions in central and southern Texas.

So, while the hurricane threat has been low this year, NOAA notes that tornado records suggest an increased chance of organized tornado activity for the Gulf Coast region this winter.  So don't put away your hurricane emergency supplies for the year, just yet.

Meanwhile, the 3 month Texas temperature outlook seems...well...non-commital.

NOAA issued its Oct-Dec 2009 three month outlook for the Houston area  divided in three:  34% chance of temps being near normal (61.1 to 63.1 deg. F), 33% chance temps will be above normal (higher than 63.1 deg. F), and a 33% chance they will be lower than normal (61.1 deg. F).

Got any 3-sided coins?

NOAA Releases New Books in Historical Climatology Series

The NOAA is releasing new material detailing both North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclones as far back as the 19th century, all part of its Historical Climatology Series. Both books represent version 6-2 and 6-5 respectively in a series that began three decades prior.

Tropical Cyclones of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, 1949-2006

• Approximately 1,370 tropical cyclones occured in the North Atlantic Ocean between 1851 and 2006
• 244 pages of facts, figures and storm tracks
• Includes recent track maps from 2007 and 2008
• Update of the series started in 1970 and last printed in 1999

Tropical Cyclones of the Eastern North Pacific Basin, 1949-2006

• 166 pages documenting 769 tropical cyclones that reached tropical storm strength or greater
• The eastern North Pacific basin - Pacific Ocean area north of the equator bounded by 140º W and the west coast of the Americas
• Apparently produces the largest number of tropical cyclones per square mile of any basin across the globe

Both books were researched and prepared by the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, NC, and in tandem with the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL.  Both are available for purchase (just click on the associated links and the NOAA will take care of the rest) at $20 and $30 a pop.

El Nino's Impacts NOAA's August 2009 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

With Hurricane Bill steaming westward on an uncertain course, one thing on the minds of many has been "What about the rest of the season?"

On August 6, NOAA released its updated forecast for 2009. As you may have guessed, while a "normal" hurricanes season was orginally forecast, however, because the season has started so late, the number of storms has been reduced to 7-11 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes. Most of this activity is expected during the upcoming peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season.

This comes about because a warming of the Pacific waters, or "El Nino", during June and is already producing increased wind shear in the Main hurricane Development Region (MDR) which encompasses the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea  The wind shear makes it more difficult for hurricanes to form or remain organized.  This may account for the late start of the season as Atlantic temperatures were too cool to provide enough storm energy to overcome the wind shear.

So how does the El Nino affect future weather for Winter 2009-2010?

Historically, this has usually meant wet winters in Florida, Texas, and the southwest with little precipitation in the Ohio Valley.  Tempuratures, meanwhile are warm from Washington State through upper midwest, with cool temperatures extending from Texas northeastwards through New York.

Is it time to start rethinking this year's ski trip?

Hurricane Bill: Tuesday A.M. Update

"Bill became the first hurricane of the season on Monday morning. It continued to strengthen throughout the day and reached category 2 strength Monday evening, currently with sustained winds near 100 miles per hour. There is a chance Hurricane Bill could go through rapid intensification today, and is currently expected to become a major hurricane in the next day or so.

The current forecast track for Bill keeps it north of the Lesser Antilles, heading in the general direction of Bermuda, or between Bermuda and the North Carolina Outer Banks, over the weekend.

Regardless of whether Bill makes landfall, rough surf is expected along the beaches of the Northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola by midweek, the Bahamas by late week, and the East Coast of the U.S. by the weekend into early next week. Dangerous rip currents can be expected once swells generated by Bill reach coastal areas."

Read Mark Avery's article at Weather.com

Track Hurricane Bill

Claudette bearing down on Florida; Will Ana and Bill become Hurricane Ana and Hurricane Bill?

After a relatively slow hurricane season thus far, there's been a flurry of activity lately with 3 storms making waves in the Atlantic and Gulf. Tropical Storm Claudette is closing in on Florida panhandle. Watch live storm updates here.

Tropical Storms Ana and Bill are also looming...

"Tropical Storm Ana (40 mile per hour winds) and is located 240 miles east of Dominica in the northern Leeward Islands.

Ana is struggling in a dry environment at this time as it races westward. The forecast is for Ana to slightly strengthen as it heads toward the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and then toward Hispaniola.

In the short term, expect increased rain and some gusty winds over portions of the northeast Caribbean Islands through Monday.

Tropical storm watches are in effect for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the rest of the northern Leeward Islands. This means tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area within 36 hours.

The intensity farther out in time will be dictated by the interaction with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and Cuba. Regardless, these areas need to monitor the progress of Tropical Storms Ana closely.

Tropical Storm Bill became the 2nd named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season on Saturday, forming in the Eastern Atlantic east of Tropical Storm Ana. Bill is currently located about 1555 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, and has top sustained winds near 60 miles per hour.

Tropical Storm Bill is forecast to move west-northwest through the open tropical Atlantic over the next few days while steadily gaining strength. If fact, Bill may be a major hurricane (category three or higher) by midweek.

The current forecast track calls for Bill to miss the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to the north. However, these areas should still monitor this systems progress over the next several days due to the uncertainty in forecasts farther out in time."

from Chris Dolce, Lead Meteorologist at The Weather Channel - The read entire article at http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurricanecentral/update/index.html?from=news_top_links

Track Ana. Track Bill.

Will Ana and Bill become Hurricane Ana and Hurricane Bill? Be prepared today.

Guillermo Classifed as a Hurricane

At 2:00 AM PDT today, The National Hurricane Center classified the storm Guillermo as hurricane, at about 1100 miles west-southwest of the tip of baja California. At the time of its classification, Hurricane Guillermo had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph.

The NHC provides detailed maps, charts, win probabilities and more, so if you're interested in tracking the course and status of the storm, check the links below:

Maps/Charts

Forecast/Advisory

NOAA Releases 2009 Hurricane Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center  calls for  a 25 percent probability of a below-normal season, 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, and a 25 percent probability of an above-normal season.  It's a classic bell-shaped curve of probability.  

"Today more than 157 million people live in coastal areas of the U.S. and some 35 million live in areas most threatened by Atlantic hurricanes. Having an accurate and advanced warning is vital for those in harm’s way," Commerce Secretary Gary Locke said at the May 21 news conference announcing the hurricane predictions. NOAA is part of the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Locke was joined by NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco, FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate, National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read and other government and military officials.  The 2009 season starts June 1.

Tropical systems acquire a name – the first for 2009 will be Ana – upon reaching tropical storm strength with sustained winds of at least 39 mph. Tropical storms become hurricanes when winds reach 74 mph, and become major hurricanes when winds increase to 111 mph.

NOAA's predictions are only slightly different from those made by Colorado State.  NOAA predicts a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with one to three major storms reaching as high as category five strength and as many as 14 named tropical storms. CSU predicts 1 category 5 storm and 12 named storms.  However, both groups predicted essentially a 50 % chance of an average hurricane season.

Of course, with all this talk about predicting storms and the accompanying pretty graphics, it's hard to remember that NOAA is not trying to forecast hurricanes down to the time, date, and landfall location.  Like their counterparts at CSU, and other climatologists, they are making predictions about probabilities or liklihood of the number of storms during the season based on a century of data and the ongoing data collection about wind and sea currents, wind and sea temperatures, and other factors that influence hurricane development (e.g. La Nina/El Nino events). 

But even if only one hurricane was known to be coming this season, the single action a person can take to care for themself and their family is to prepare for that storm's arrival.  All too often, the best way to handle a hurricane's arrival is to leave.

Stay tuned for energy_linguist's upcoming third installment on hurricane safety.

Hurricane Preparedness Week 2009

Running May 24-31, National Hurricane Preparedness Week marks an important time for families in coastal areas to raise their awareness and preparation habits prior to the start of hurricane season. The National Hurricane Center utilizes the entire week to educate citizens on the history and dangers that hurricane season brings, in addition to saving lives with important tips to help families properly prepare.

The topics covered include:

• Hurricane history and facts
• Hazards
• Forecast
• Prepare
• Act

As hurricane season approaches, I will scour the Web and blogsphere for tips that will help you better prepare in case of a tropical storm or hurricane. National Hurricane Preparedness Week marks the first push in the education process, and I will update with important facts as provided.

Gov. Perry Signs Hurricane Recovery Bill for Utilities and Customers

On Thursday, April 16, Texas Governor Rick Perry signed into law a way for utilities to recover more quickly from hurricanes and other natural disasters.

Sponsored by Sen. Tommy Williams and Rep. Senfronia Thompson, Senate Bill 769 authorizes the Public Utility Commision of Texas (PUCT) to permit an electric utility to issue low-cost bonds to recover restoration costs and easing the burden of post-disaster recovery on Texas electric companies and their customers.

“With every storm, we examine our recovery approaches to do better next time.” Gov. Perry said. “The bill I am signing today will help us prepare even better for the next storm and recover more quickly when it has gone.”

Bond financing (or "securitization") has been used before following Hurricane Rita in 2005.  The new law intruduces a mechanism to cover costs from Hurricane Ike as well as enabling the PUCT to permit financing without requiring new legislation.  This will allow Texas energy companies  the financial agility to respond quickly to future storms.

2009 Hurricane Season Forcast Revised

On April 9, Colorado State University hurricane forecasters issued their forecast of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  The team of researchers William Gray and Phil Klotzbach have lowered the numbers of their first 2009 forecast, dated December 10, 2008, from 14 named storms in the Atlantic Basin to 12.  They foresee this storm activity as average. 

Klotzbach said the new forecast is based on factors including anomalous cooling of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the curent weak La Nina conditions in the Pacific transistioning to neutral.  A weak El Nino condition may arise later this year.

El Nino is a warming in the eastern Pacific Ocean that can have such far-reaching effects as changing wind patterns in the eastern Atlantic, which can disrupt the formation of hurricanes. A La Nina is a cooling of the same eastern Pacific region.

The current estimate is 12 named storms lasting 55 days.  There will be 6 hurricanes lasting 25 days.  Two of these hurricanes will be intense (Category 3-4-5) lasting 5 days.

Also forecast was an average probability for one major hurricane (Category 3-4-5) making landfall on the following each of the following costal areas:

Entire U.S. coastline: 54%

U.S. East Coast including Florida peninsula:  32%

Gulf Coast; Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, TX: 30%

You can check the predicted hurricane landfall probability for your county at the United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project.