Hurricane Preparedness Center

The End of Hurricane Season: What You Should Expect

While typically hurricane season peaks before November rolls around, the season doesn't actually conclude until the end of November. The Atlantic Oceanic and Meteorological Laboratory reports that 97% of hurricane activity occurs between May and November, but historically hurricane activity has occurred outside of that range. Obviously the 3 percent tells you that it's not altogether common, but as we've seen with uncommonly strong hurricane seasons in 2005 and 2006, predicting the nature of each successive  season is not an exact science by any means.

With that in mind, here are a few tidbits of data to consider as hurricane season 2009 is drawing to a close:

1. The Atlantic basin peak season actually occurs from August-October. Splitting activity into days associated with the varying scales of hurricane weather, 78% of tropical storm activity, 87% of cat. 1-2 hurricanes and 96% of the major (3, 4 and 5) occur in this time frame. So if you're in the Atlantic basin, November is not far outside of the peak.
2. Northeast Pacific basin actually extends into November for its peak season, hence the Nov. 30 target date for end of hurricane season.

What do all these numbers actually mean? Stay prepared and stay diligent. No one expects hurricanes at the cusp of Thanksgiving, but if you're paying attention to historical hurricane data, then it's certainly not outside of the realm of possibility.

NOAA: El Niño to Help Steer U.S. Winter Weather; More Tornados Possible

An El Niño in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is expected to influence the December through February winter weather in the United States.   The 2009 Winter Outlook  was released October 15, 2009 by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. 

“We expect El Niño to strengthen and persist through the winter months, providing clues as to what the weather will be like during the period,” says Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. “Warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn change the strength and position of the jetstream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and the U.S.”

“Other climate factors are also likely to play a role in the winter weather at times across the country,” added Halpert. “Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.”

Texas and the Gulf of Mexico are expected to be 30-50% wetter while being 33-40% cooler than normal temperatures.  Recent rainfall and the prospects of more should improve current drought conditions in central and southern Texas.

So, while the hurricane threat has been low this year, NOAA notes that tornado records suggest an increased chance of organized tornado activity for the Gulf Coast region this winter.  So don't put away your hurricane emergency supplies for the year, just yet.

Meanwhile, the 3 month Texas temperature outlook seems...well...non-commital.

NOAA issued its Oct-Dec 2009 three month outlook for the Houston area  divided in three:  34% chance of temps being near normal (61.1 to 63.1 deg. F), 33% chance temps will be above normal (higher than 63.1 deg. F), and a 33% chance they will be lower than normal (61.1 deg. F).

Got any 3-sided coins?

FEMA for Kids: Hurricanes

Getting your kids involved and informed during hurricane season, and beyond, is a bit easier than you may think. The National Hurricane Center has a plethora of good information on hurricane emergency preparedness, but some of the presentation may be a bit much for children to take a bite out of.

FEMA for Kids: Hurricanes offers tons of information relevant to not only hurricanes but also specific tips for kids on how they can help prepare for storm season, and what to do in case of an emergency.

For example, Things to Know offers these nuggets:

"Plan a place to meet your family in case you are separated during a disaster. Choose a friend or relative out of state for your family members to call to say they are OK."

and

"Bring in outside furniture. An adult should remove roof antennas, if they can do so safely."

Other items of note included in the site:

• The10 biggest hurricanes from 1900-2009
• Disaster supply kit (activity and information)
• Hurricane IQ quiz
• Hurricane cartoons
• Photos
• Pets and disasters

Overall FEMA for Kids: Hurricanes is packed with not essential hurricane information, but information presented in a very kid-friendly manner, making it more likely for your kids to find learning about hurricanes and hurricane safety a more enjoyable experience.

Historical Hurricane Tracks from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Historical Hurricane Tracks tool provides an interactive map for users to search through tropical cyclone data in the Eastern North Pacific and Atlantic Basins.

The primary historical data allows searches for specific storm tracks, so hurricane history buffs can sift through data as far back as the 19th century, with additional links to the 10 deadliest and costliest hurricanes in U.S. history.

Site features include:

• Search by ZIP Code, latitude and longitude coordinates, city or state, or geographic region.
• Coastal Population Tool allows users to search through coastal population data and compare with hurricane strikes for coastal counties across the U.S.
• Tropical Cyclone Reports provides access to storm reports written by none other than actual hurricane specialists at the National Hurricane Center.
• Query Expediter Tool is fantastic for bloggers and the Web savvy in us all, allowing users to build custom Uniform Resource Locators (URLs) that can be embedded in your blog or site that direct users to a custom mapping application with specific storm tracks pre displayed.

History repeats, as they say, and considering you can search through data from the deadliest hurricanes as far back as 1851, it's certainly a useful tool for learning about past precedence and storm data.

Know Before You Go - Preparing for Hurricane Season

The key to hurricane season is preparation, as I've said too many times to keep track. Hammering that point home is essential simply because it truly is the most important aspect of facing hurricane season with confidence.

The U.S. Department of State lists out some really great tips on preparing for hurricane season, most of which are common sense, but they do provide a nice travel checklist in addition to tips for being aware of hurricane hazard zones when traveling across the country or into Mexico and other hurricane-prone areas.

The page lists the following to help guide you through safe hurricane season:

• Which regions are prone to hurricanes and what hazards you may face
• The full calendar hurricane season (June to November)
• How to access and make your whereabouts known to the nearest U.S. Embassy or Consulate via the State's travel registration site
• Traveler’s Checklist

For more specific information visit Hurricane Season - Know Before You Go

Hurricane Trackers

As the first storm of 2009 in Hurricane Andres made its mark last week, the need for increased awareness and visibility into hurricane activity becomes a bit more recognized. I've included links to various hurricane trackers that offer satellite imagery and ongoing storm information.

Obviously being prepared for a disaster is much more involving than simply clicking around on a few storm trackers, but being aware of pending storms that could be heading to your neck of the woods (or coastal area) is a solid first step to staying ahead of the curve.

Stormpulse
Weather Underground
MSNBC Hurricane Tracker (new and very interactive, may not load on older browsers that do not support flash)
Tropical Storms Worldwide(by region)

Getting to Know Inland Flooding

It's not a coincidence that hurricane experts tout flooding as the deadliest arm of the tropical occurrence. Anyone who has family, friends or experienced first hand Hurricane Katrina, understands the volatile nature and unpredictability of hurricane storm surge and flooding.

A few important facts:

• Heavy rains associated with a coastal hurricane can affect flooding conditions hundreds of miles inland, so just because you're not in the direct line of fire, doesn't mean that flooding won't affect you.
• A hurricane landfall can produce on average 5-10 inches of rain; if it stalls, much more. Even when the storm loses some of its punch, a tropical depression can produce massive amounts of precipitation over an extended period of time.
• Hurricane winds play a part as well, forcing coastal waters on shore and furthering the risk of inland flooding.

How to be prepared:

• Know your evacuation route and know it well.
• If prompted, do not hesitate to evacuate.
• Pack toiletries, food essentials. water, batteries, blankets in case the need to evacuate arrives. Being prepared will shave precious minutes and hours off the time you'll need to stay ahead of the storm.
• Contact your insurance provider regarding flood insurance. Many homeowner's insurance policies do not cover flood damage.
• Know which areas around your home, neighborhood and city are prone to excessive flooding. Never attempt to drive through a heavily flooded area; the depth of water can be very difficult to predict, and a few feet of water can cause quite a bit of vehicle damage.

Hurricane Proof Houses

There are 3 key components in any hurricane proof house:

1. The roof: (ie; roof system) is one of the most critical components in any high-wind storm.  During high winds, negative air gradient forms over the roof of a house and pulls it upwards.  To see how it works, try this scientific table top simulation:

Get a piece of paper and lay it on a table.  Next, blow forcefully across the top of the paper (but not under it).  The paper will rise and fly across the table just like a roof that is not properly secured.

Hurricane straps are able to withstand winds of more than 100 miles per hour. They are steel straps that are bent over the top of the roof truss and are attached on either side to the wall plate. They are most easily installed when the home is being framed and access to the truss and wall plate has not been covered with sheathing, insulation, and sheetrock.  It is possible to retrofit an older home, but be advised it is time consuming, messy, and expensive. The roof must be cut back to expose each place where a roof truss meets the wall framing.  Then the strap can be installed.

2. Entryways: Garage doors, doors, and windows and are all weak points susceptible to breakdown by wind pressure and blowing debris. When breached, wind pressure builds up inside the building and in seconds, may tear the roof off a building. Garage doors should be replaced or reinforced to withstand high winds.  An inward opening front door can be blown open by wind. Doors should open outward, away from the house, and are better reinforced when closed. In hurricane prone areas it is usually a requirement to install windows capable of withstanding  winds 150 mile per hour. These windows should have plastic panes, shatter-proof glass or glass with protective membranes (Impact Glass).   Hurricane shutters can also provide effective protection.

3. Protection from flying debris: The biggest hazard to homeowners' safety during a hurricane or tornado is the debris that is driven by high winds.  With wind speeds at 150 mph, even a heavy 10 foot long piece of lumber can be picked up and driven clear through an exterior wall made of cement stucco and strand board sheathing. 

While it might not be convenient for retrofitting or affordable for everyone, the most durable buidling material versus flying debris and wind is reinforced concrete due its strength and density.

For even more info on making your home more hurricane proof visit: 

OneStorm

Hurricane Retrofit Guide

CNN's Hurricane Proof Your Home

National Hurricane Preparedness Week - Creating an Emergency Plan

Part 3 of my ode to National Hurricane Preparedness Week details the importance of utilizing all the knowledge you've gained so far and putting together a family emergency plan.

Here are the steps you should take prior to hurricane season:

1. Assess the vulnerabilities of your home to common hurricane hazards.
2. Determine local safety areas in your community in case you need to evacuate your home.
3. Map out which areas of you home are safest for each hazard. Not trying to state the obvious here, but the basement may be ideal for protection against high winds and debris, but not ideal for storm surge and flooding.
4. Know your city or town's hurricane evacuation route.
5. Before storm season hits, talk with your insurance company to determine what parts of your home are covered. Generally, flood insurance is a separate policy from your homeowners insurance.
6. Create an emergency or disaster kit (see details below)
7. Purchase a battery powered radio and keep extra stock of batteries in case of severe power loss.
8. Consider purchasing a generator for extended periods without power, but be sure to talk with the retailer and learn the proper way to operate indoors.

A disaster kit should contain the essentials for at least 3 days of roughing it without power, but consider stocking up for a full week. Even minor hurricane winds and flooding can cause enough damage to leave residents without power for several days. In fact, during Hurricane Ike I lost power for 2 weeks, so speaking from personal experience, it's best to be prepared for the worst and hope for the best.

For more details on creating a hurricane disaster kit.

NOAA Releases 2009 Hurricane Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center  calls for  a 25 percent probability of a below-normal season, 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, and a 25 percent probability of an above-normal season.  It's a classic bell-shaped curve of probability.  

"Today more than 157 million people live in coastal areas of the U.S. and some 35 million live in areas most threatened by Atlantic hurricanes. Having an accurate and advanced warning is vital for those in harm’s way," Commerce Secretary Gary Locke said at the May 21 news conference announcing the hurricane predictions. NOAA is part of the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Locke was joined by NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco, FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate, National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read and other government and military officials.  The 2009 season starts June 1.

Tropical systems acquire a name – the first for 2009 will be Ana – upon reaching tropical storm strength with sustained winds of at least 39 mph. Tropical storms become hurricanes when winds reach 74 mph, and become major hurricanes when winds increase to 111 mph.

NOAA's predictions are only slightly different from those made by Colorado State.  NOAA predicts a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with one to three major storms reaching as high as category five strength and as many as 14 named tropical storms. CSU predicts 1 category 5 storm and 12 named storms.  However, both groups predicted essentially a 50 % chance of an average hurricane season.

Of course, with all this talk about predicting storms and the accompanying pretty graphics, it's hard to remember that NOAA is not trying to forecast hurricanes down to the time, date, and landfall location.  Like their counterparts at CSU, and other climatologists, they are making predictions about probabilities or liklihood of the number of storms during the season based on a century of data and the ongoing data collection about wind and sea currents, wind and sea temperatures, and other factors that influence hurricane development (e.g. La Nina/El Nino events). 

But even if only one hurricane was known to be coming this season, the single action a person can take to care for themself and their family is to prepare for that storm's arrival.  All too often, the best way to handle a hurricane's arrival is to leave.

Stay tuned for energy_linguist's upcoming third installment on hurricane safety.